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It's Flu Season: What the Data Reveals About Risk, Prevention, and Action

Early Indicators from the 2025–2026 Season

As of late December, the 2025–2026 flu season has already been classified as moderately severe, according to the CDC, with activity increasing across all regions.1 Flu-like illness levels continue to rise, and early estimates already reflect millions of illnesses and growing hospitalization counts.

These early signals suggest that elevated disease activity will persist in the coming months, reinforcing the importance of timely intervention rather than waiting for peak severity before acting.

More importantly, the data tells a deeper story, one that goes beyond case counts. It highlights where prevention efforts are falling short, which populations are being disproportionately affected, and why clear, actionable guidance remains essential.

Vaccination Trends

Approximately 130 million doses of the flu vaccine have been distributed for the 2025-2026 season.3 However, coverage remains below public health targets, particularly in children and working-age adults. At the same time, COVID-19 vaccination uptake has declined substantially, even as co-circulation continues.4

Public attention this season has focused heavily on gradual genetic changes in circulating H3N2 viruses (a subtype of the influenza A virus).2 While laboratory testing has shown some reduced effectiveness,5 real-world data show a more meaningful measure of protection.

The data is clear: vaccination later in the season still provides meaningful protection, and co-administration of flu and COVID-19 vaccines is both safe and effective.

Disparities Continue

However, hospitalization data from the 2024–2025 season paints another picture of ongoing racial and ethnic disparities in flu outcomes.7 Black communities face nearly twice the hospitalization rates of White communities, reflecting longstanding structural inequities related to access to care, occupational exposure, housing conditions, and chronic disease prevalence.

These disparities underscore the need for targeted, population-based prevention strategies that go beyond broad public messaging. Effective disease prevention must meet people where they are and engage trusted messengers within disproportionately affected communities.

The takeaway is evident: the vaccine is still working. But the challenge facing public health systems requires more than vaccines, it demands population health strategies that address access, trust, and social determinants of health.

Public Trust, Clarity, and the Role of Providers

National survey data highlights another critical barrier: confusion.6 Nearly half of respondents report that guidance around vaccines for flu and COVID is unclear or difficult to navigate. While healthcare professionals remain the most trusted source of information, a notable proportion of individuals report not receiving a provider recommendation.

Provider endorsement remains one of the strongest predictors of vaccination. Every clinical encounter—whether in primary care, urgent care, or community health settings—represents an opportunity to reinforce prevention.

Moving from Data to Action

This season's flu experience reinforces a familiar but urgent lesson: data alone does not improve health outcomes—action does.

Health systems and public health organizations can reduce severe disease outcomes by:

  • Strengthening provider-driven vaccine recommendations
  • Expanding targeted, community-based outreach
  • Using real-time data to guide prevention strategies
  • Simplifying and clarifying public-facing guidance
  • Prioritizing access in vaccination and treatment efforts

And, the data is a reminder that flu prevention is not a seasonal campaign—it is an ongoing commitment to access, trust, and clarity.

References

[1]: CDC. Weekly US Influenza Surveillance Report: Week 52, ending December 27, 2025. FluView. Published January 5, 2026. https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/

[2]: CDC. Influenza Activity in the United States during the 2024-25 Season and Composition of the 2025-26 Influenza Vaccine. Published September 26, 2025.

[3]: CDC. Weekly Flu Vaccination Dashboard. FluVaxView. Updated December 27, 2025. https://www.cdc.gov/fluvaxview/

[4]: CDC. Weekly COVID-19 Vaccination Dashboard. COVIDVaxView. Updated December 13, 2025.

[5]: UK Health Security Agency. Early influenza virus characterisation and vaccine effectiveness in England in autumn 2025. Euro Surveill. 2025.

[6]: NFID. 2025 National Survey on Respiratory Diseases. Published December 3, 2025. https://www.nfid.org/

[7]: CDC. FluSurv-NET Hospitalization Surveillance. 2024-2025 Season Data.